The first cut is the deepest, or so the title of the song written by Cat Stevens goes. And in a national beauty pageant like Bb. Pilipinas where the level of contention among the candidates is as sharp as the cutting edge of a high-carbon steel Japanese-style chef’s knife, there is a big difference between being summoned to centerstage for the first elimination during the Grand Coronation Night. It is at this point where the ladies with official placements are separated from those relegated to just stay in the background for the remaining hours of the competition.

In this year’s edition of Bb. Pilipinas, your blogger followed the format used last year where the Top 25 signalled the start of the filtration process. It also gives a relatively wider breathing space in that more deserving candidates are recognized for their hard-earned efforts in standing out and being counted as among the stronger ones.

Here are the twenty-five beauties in my first cut, according to their respective pin numbers:

#Binibini1 Vickie Marie Rushton
#Binibini3 Muriel Adrienne Orais
#Binibini4 Ana Patricia Asturias
#Binibini7 Sigrid Grace Flores
#Binibini9 Agatha Romero
#Binibini10 Kayesha Clauden Chua
#Binibini11 Ma. Andrea “Aya” Abesamis
#Binibini14 Samantha Mae Bernardo
#Binibini15 Juliana Kapeundl
#Binibini17 Ma. Ahtisa Manalo
#Binibini19 Michele Therese Gumabao
#Binibini20 Catriona Elisa Gray
#Binibini21 Anjame Santos Magbitang
#Binibini23 Ena Louis Velasco
#Binibini24 Edjelyn Joy Gamboa
#Binibini26 Wynonah Van Joy Buot
#Binibini29 Samantha Avestruz
#Binibini30 Sarah Margarette Joson
#Binibini31 Jehza Mae Huelar
#Binibini32 Eva Psychee Patalinjug
#Binibini33 Stephanie Joy Abellanida
#Binibini35 Sandra Lemonon
#Binibini36 Loren Mar Artajos
#Binibini37 Patrizia Mariah L. Garcia
#Binibini38 Karen J. Gallman

Believe it or not, it breaks my heart to have no spot/s left for any of the remaining fifteen. But in the true spirit of pageant analysis, it needs to be done so we can move forward and zero in further on the more deserving fighters. This despite the fact that the afterglow of making it to Top 25 is relatively short-lived as the next cut to 15 beckons shortly after the swimsuit and/or evening gown competition.

Now if a People’s Choice Award winner is automatically selected as part of the Top 15, then I would go out on a limb by stating that #Binibini20 Catriona Gray is very likely to get the honor of being guaranteed a spot. Her fan base is undeniably strong, just like the time of MJ Lastimosa where crowd cheers/popularity is only part and parcel of the support. Text and online votes provide just as much proof of the same.

So that leaves us with getting fourteen more Binibinis to join her in the next mix. Hence, my Top 15 reads as follows:

#Binibini1 Vickie Marie Rushton
#Binibini3 Muriel Adrienne Orais
#Binibini7 Sigrid Grace Flores
#Binibini11 Ma. Andrea “Aya” Abesamis
#Binibini14 Samantha Mae Bernardo
#Binibini19 Michele Theresa Gumabao
#Binibini20 Catriona Gray
#Binibini21 Anjame Santos Magbitang
#Binibini23 Ena Louis Velasco
#Binibini26 Wynonah Van Joy Buot
#Binibini31 Jehza Mae Huelar
#Binibini32 Eva Psychee Patalinjug
#Binibini35 Sandra Lemonon
#Binibini37 Patrizia Mariah L. Garcia
#Binibini38 Karen J. Gallman

Now this is the part where nerves of steel and grace under pressure will score high on the score sheets of the judges. A lot of the still-standing Binibinis in my Top 15 are expected to deliver at this point. Based on previous performances in another national pageant alone, #Binibini20 Catriona Gray (Miss World Philippines 2016) has already proven herself well-equipped the minute she starts holding the microphone and dishing out an answer to the question that will be asked of her.

During last Sunday night’s “The Road to the Crown” TV Special on ABS-CBN as well, there were those who showed how good they are in expressing themselves more spontaneously during the speaking test where they were tasked to enter a room and pick a photo or item that represents their aspirations and motivations.

But the Final Q&A could be an entirely different playing field. I reckon that there will have already been installed favorites at this juncture. And if my combination of gut-feel and observations is to be relied upon, the following eight could be headed for victorious punctuations to their Bb. Pilipinas dreams, provided that they don’t falter big-time during this part:

#Binibini3 Muriel Adrienne Orais
#Binibini11 Ma. Andrea “Aya” Abesamis
#Binibini19 Michele Theresa Gumabao
#Binibini20 Catriona Elisa Gray
#Binibini31 Jehza Huelar
#Binibini32 Eva Psychee Patalinjug
#Binibini37 Patrizia Mariah Garcia
#Binibini38 Karen J. Gallman

Two of them are looking to be Runners-Up – Eva Psychee Patalinjug and Patrizia Mariah Garcia. These two can definitely rejoin and still be groomed for better things to come in a year or two. Being part of the winners’ circle will allow them to train with the titleholders for many months to come.

As for my predicted Queens, this is how I see the distribution of the titles:

Globe – #Binibini3 Muriel Adrienne Orais
Intercontinental – #Binibini38 Karen J. Gallman
Grand International – #Binibini31 Jehza Huelar
Supranational – #Binibini11 Ma. Andrea “Aya” Abesamis
International – #Binibini19 Michele Theresa Gumabao
Universe – #Binibini20 Catriona Elisa Gray

Predicting the winners of Bb. Pilipinas is a tricky proposition, unless I have the power to read into the future. Final deliberations can be ultimately trickier, though. But I sincerely hope that the rightful winners be assigned to the crowns where they can be maximized to the fullest, en route to a glorious collective participation in their respective missions abroad.

Extra good luck to all of you, Binibinis!